The 32× P/E only clears if a bid lands — and the largest bidder just stopped 60 bps short of forcing one.

• Eiffage 29.40% capital / 29.9% votes; Mundys 19% / 24.8% votes (25% / 29.9% if Mundys exercises the second swap tranche). Combined fully exercised: ~54% capital and ~59% votes after Eiffage's March 2026 1.74% market block ($196M, max $20.78/share) and Mundys' 31 March 2026 first swap tranche. Both sit under the AMF 30% mandatory-tender line.
• 15.9× EV/EBITDA versus AENA's 10.6×. Premium to the cleanest single-asset concession comp is the takeout option, not yield. A forced bid at 16–18× infra-bidder math implies $26–28; absent a bid, the multiple can compress toward AENA's $13–14 band.
• Years of accumulation, zero offer. Both holders publicly state long-term strategic intent and already extract governance through board representation. No AMF rule forces them to cross 30%.

FY25 looked like +4% EBITDA. Strip the insurance line and underlying is flat.

FY25 EBITDA absorbed $65M of ElecLink suspension-related insurance compensation — only $6M cash in 2025, the rest receivable — and ElecLink segment EBITDA at $186M sits well above plausible normalised levels (FY25 included $94M profit-sharing provision). Q1 2026 ElecLink revenue +112% on a depressed base (suspension Jan 1–Feb 5 2025) flatters the read; underlying Q1 ElecLink growth was +21%. FY26 guide implies broadly flat ex-insurance. H1 results on 23 July are the first clean print.

A 60-year treaty monopoly with a hidden growth toll layer inside it.

• Treaty concession through 2086. The 1986 Treaty of Canterbury grants exclusive Channel Tunnel rights for 60 more years; replacement cost $23.5B+, build time 15+ years, no rival fixed-link project tabled in 40 years. Eurotunnel segment EBITDA margin 55.7% — AENA-band economics, not VINCI-band.
• Railway Network toll: $483M, +4% YoY, near-100% incremental margin. Inflation-indexed formula in force to 2052. Eurostar passengers 11.8M FY25 (+5% YoY, all-time high); Open Access entrants (Virgin/Evolyn, FS Italiane) targeting launches late this decade with zero Tunnel capex. Market values this inside the segment blend, not separately.
• The weak link — Truck Shuttle. Short Straits share 42.2% → 35.4% from FY22 to FY25 as ferries permanently captured ~10% of unaccompanied trailer share post-Brexit. Decline velocity slowed to 30 bps/yr in FY24–FY25; Q1 2026 share 35.8% vs 36.4% Q1 2025 — stabilising in the mid-30s, or one new ferry vessel from re-accelerating.

Four dated events, one undated trigger that resolves the whole debate.

• 5 Jun — May traffic. April printed trucks −2%, passenger cars −10% YoY — the first negative tape since the breakout. May tests whether April was Easter timing or structural drift ahead of the EU EES phased rollout at Eurotunnel sites April–September.
• 23 Jul — H1 2026 results. First clean ex-insurance run-rate. $482M+ EBITDA with the residual $59M ElecLink insurance collected as cash reopens the consensus-upgrade path; sub-$435M validates the bear's normalised-multiple call.
• Any day — Eiffage threshold filing. Any further block taking Eiffage above 30% capital, or an AMF concert-party finding on Eiffage + Mundys, triggers a mandatory tender at a control premium and resolves the standoff.